Development of methodological foundations for analyzing the system reliability of modern electric power systems

The article discusses issues related to improving the methodological foundations for analyzing the system reliability of electric power systems. In particular, a decomposition of the complex property “system reliability” is presented, which covers all stages of control of electric power systems. In accordance with the new decomposition, system reliability is formed by three components: security (operational reliability), planned reliability and adequacy. Each of the components is designed to solve specific problems at various stages of managing electrical power systems. Thus, the methodological apparatus for analyzing adequacy should mainly be used when solving problems of designing the development of electric power systems, the methodological apparatus for analyzing planned reliability should be used when solving problems of work planning (states and balances), and the methodological apparatus for analyzing security when solving problems of operational management. Unlike the concepts of adequacy and security, the concept of planned reliability is new. The article presents the rationale for introducing the concept of “planned reliability” into the practice of managing electric power systems. The main differences between planned reliability and security and adequacy are reflected. The basic requirements for the methodology for assessing the planned reliability of electric power systems are formulated. It is indicated that when assessing the planned reliability of electric power systems, it is necessary to take into account a number of random processes in the functioning of energy facilities, such as energy storage systems, hydroelectric power plants, renewable energy sources and others, and this requires the use of the mathematical apparatus of random processes in the functioning of systems. To assess planned reliability, it is proposed to use the sequential Monte Carlo method. 

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