Assessment of the effects of climate change on the safety and reliability of the functioning of the electric power complex in Moscow

The article is dedicated to the study of the problem of the influence of climate change on the reliability and safety of the power complex of the Moscow metropolis. The analysis of climatic change in the Moscow region shows the number of dangerous climatic events that have intensified over the past ten years, leading to economic damage. In the paper, the observed manifestations of climate change have been analyzed, isolated and ranked according to the effect on the reliability of the power supply system. The vulnerability of the electric power industry to unfavorable climatic events is considered. The analysis is presented of accident rate, economic damage in some basic elements of the power system.

The power supply system of the Moscow energy center is characterized by high reliability and saturation with devices for converting, distributing and transmitting electrical energy. Based on the official statistics of local power outages in the Moscow metropolis, analysis is performed of the intensity of failures of overhead power transmission lines. Correlation analysis of their interrelation with the intensity of occurrence of dangerous climatic events is performed. It is shown that the most intensive effects are not only produced by individual climatic events, but also by some of their combinations: "strong wind" and "ice"; "high humidity" and "a high number of temperature transitions through 0 °C", etc. Based on the dependencies obtained, regularities have been revealed that allow predicting the key parameters of damage from the most frequent unfavorable climatic events, which have become more frequent with climate change. Through the application of regression methods of analysis, the functions of the dependence of the occurrence of wire breaks in high-voltage distribution networks with a voltage up to 110 kV and wire breaks in backbone networks with a voltage over 110 kV on climatic factors are substantiated.

An estimation of the total economic damage to the power grid complex in Moscow from the most influential climatic events has been performed. Some low-cost oportunities for adaptation of existing power transmission networks to the change in the Moscow metropolis are considered.

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