Use of an analytical method for calculating reliability of elements of electric power systems based on probabilistic models

Today, we no longer have to prove the need for numerical evaluation of reliability of in-plant power supply systems. There have been established generally accepted reliability indices in the form of frequency of various accidents and mathematical expectation of undersupply of electricity to consumers, or decrease of power generation by plants. Factors are revealed factors that must be considered at analysis of reliability of power supply systems: availability of repair of switching circuits and duration of repair of the main equipment and switching equipment, failures of switching devices and devices of relay protection and automatics, routine switching, seasonal variations in damage to overhead lines and outdoor equipment. Here, one should take into account a possible lack of reliable initial information about the reliability of elements at the consideration of a specific installation. The paper formulates models of the analytical method of calculation of reliability parameters of elements of power supply systems in the Matlab software. Reliability models are considered for power units, which involve restoration and prevention activities. Three states of a system are considered: operable state; emergency downtime and recovery, scheduled downtime for preventive maintenance or repair subject to intensities of emergency and planned outages, intensities, recovery and completion of scheduled maintenance and repair. It is shown that, at present, targeted screening and quantification of contributions to unreliability of power supply systems by failures of elements of the system, its states and modes, as well as effectiveness of various measures, allow to identify weak links of the power supply systems and to work out specific ways for improvement in the process of human-machine synthesis of the power supply system. This approach to design involves searching for new circuit solutions, and changes in the structure of the circuit and layout solutions of its equipment mitigation of weaknesses, elimination of excessive equipment, or, on the contrary, using more reliable equipment, as well as its modernization.

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