ОЦЕНКА ИНВЕСТИЦИОННЫХ РИСКОВ ПРИ ВЫЯВЛЕНИИ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКИХ УГРОЗ ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКОЙ БЕЗОПАСНОСТИ

Abstract

The paper examines one of the problems of the long-term energy forecasting, i.e. the quantitative estimation of the strategic threat of possible power shortage in energy supply systems because of the investment risks. The key features of the methodological approach suggested for solving this problem are: combination of optimization with the method of statistical testing (Monte Carlo method); consideration of the character of initial data uncertainty; assessment of the efficiency, riskiness and probability of different alternatives and projects of energy supply in a changing environment.