Approaches to forming a list of measures for improving heat supply system reliability indicators

This study presents general approaches to forming a list of measures to improve the reliability of heat supply systems. An assessment of the reliability indicators for heat supply systems of district heating network sections and consumers was conducted. Heat supply schemes were transformed while maintaining the logical interconnection between elements, and the main calculation stages for several combined heat and power plants (CHPP) are presented. The following results are provided: processed data on failures and repairs of heating network sections within a CHPP heat supply system, and an assessment of heat supply reliability indicators for the CHPP consumers. A calculation was performed based on a selected logical criterion for the following system reliability indicators using the Zulu Thermo software package: probability of failure-free operation; availability factor; average total heat supply shortfall; distance from the source, m; probability of failure; recovery rate; failure rate; failure flow. To facilitate the analysis of reliability indicators, additional modeling of the thermal-hydraulic operating regime of heating networks was carried out; adjustment and verification calculations were performed. An approach to forming a list of measures for improving the reliability indicators of heat supply systems is proposed, based on a matrix method that involves constructing dependencies of risk changes on the probability of failure and the total heat energy shortfall. The application of algorithms for developing a list of measures to improve the reliability indicators for consumers and sections of heating networks is substantiated.

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